Analyzing and Quantifying Key Sources of Uncertainty in Intermittent Water Supply Simulation: Supply Characteristics, Household Tank Size and Time Series of Water Consumption From the Household Tanks

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Sarişen D., Memon F. A., Mohammadi H., Farmani R.

Water Resources Research, cilt.62, sa.3, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 62 Sayı: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1029/2024wr039282
  • Dergi Adı: Water Resources Research
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, Compendex, EconLit, Environment Index, Geobase, INSPEC, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: EPA-SWMM, intermittent water supply, Sobol's sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis
  • Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
  • Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Many researchers have used deterministic models to address issues in intermittent water supply (IWS) systems, such as inequitable distribution, but these models often overlook key uncertainties. IWS systems vary widely in practices and operations, introducing uncertainties in areas like water consumption pattern, supply characteristics, and household tank sizes. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel framework for assessing uncertainty in model input parameters and applies it to an IWS network using an EPA-SWMM-based hydraulic simulation. In the first phase, uncertainty analysis (UA) uses probabilistic methods and Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the impact of uncertainties on performance indicators. The second phase applies global sensitivity analysis (SA) (Sobol's method) to identify the most influential parameters. The findings reveal that system performance is primarily governed by supply characteristics, while household tank size exerts a secondary but nonlinear influence on both pressure and consumption based indicators. Excessive household tank size is shown to reduce the pressure and supply equity, whereas moderate tank size improves the fairness of the water distribution. This work provides a foundation for more accurate and reliable IWS modeling approaches.