Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability in Turkey via Quantile Cointegration

Akkoc U., Kargin Akkoc G.

MALIYE DERGISI, no.172, pp.15-29, 2017 (ESCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Publication Date: 2017
  • Journal Name: MALIYE DERGISI
  • Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Page Numbers: pp.15-29
  • Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University Affiliated: No

Abstract

Fiscal sustainability means that the public debt stock will be met with the sum of future public revenues without any policy changes. The relationship between public revenues and public expenditure informs policymakers about public debts. The aim of the study is to analyze fiscal sustainability and the relationship between public revenues and public expenditure in Turkey during 2006: 1-2017: 3. For this purpose unit roots, cointegration tests with structural breaks and quantile cointegration tests were applied. According to the results of the quantile regression method, there is a long-term relationship that varies across the quantiles between public expenditure and public income. Consequently, fiscal sustainability continues in Turkey despite 2008 crisis even it's in weak form.