Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability in Turkey via Quantile Cointegration


Akkoc U., Kargin Akkoc G.

MALIYE DERGISI, sa.172, ss.15-29, 2017 (ESCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2017
  • Dergi Adı: MALIYE DERGISI
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.15-29

Özet

Fiscal sustainability means that the public debt stock will be met with the sum of future public revenues without any policy changes. The relationship between public revenues and public expenditure informs policymakers about public debts. The aim of the study is to analyze fiscal sustainability and the relationship between public revenues and public expenditure in Turkey during 2006: 1-2017: 3. For this purpose unit roots, cointegration tests with structural breaks and quantile cointegration tests were applied. According to the results of the quantile regression method, there is a long-term relationship that varies across the quantiles between public expenditure and public income. Consequently, fiscal sustainability continues in Turkey despite 2008 crisis even it's in weak form.