Projection of Heating and Cooling Degree Days in Ankara Under Climate Change Using ERA5-Land and Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Models: A Multi-Threshold Approach
Buildings, cilt.16, sa.16, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 16 Sayı: 16
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.3390/buildings16163183
- Dergi Adı: Buildings
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Applied Science & Technology Source, Avery, Compendex, INSPEC, Directory of Open Access Journals, Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Materials Science & Engineering Collection (ProQuest), Technology Collection (ProQuest)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Ankara, bias correction, building energy demand, climate change, CMIP6, cooling degree days, ERA5-Land, heating degree days
- Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Climate change is shifting building thermal demand from heating toward cooling, yet quantitative, design-relevant projections for semi-arid continental cities remain scarce. This study projects heating and cooling degree days (HDDs and CDDs) for Ankara, Türkiye, using ERA5-Land as the reference, and a quantile delta mapping (QDM) bias-corrected CMIP6 ensemble under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, across eight base temperatures (HDD 15–18 °C; CDD 23–26 °C) to 2100. By the far future, HDD18 decreases by 23–37% whereas CDD24 increases by +205 to +498 °C·day/year (with wide inter-model spread), and the heating degree days factor declines from 0.984 to 0.765, marking a shift toward cooling within the degree-day budget; the cooling season extends from 25 to as many as 106 days. In a deterministic −1 to +2 °C local-temperature-offset test, the direction of change persists, and the cooling design dry-bulb temperature rises by up to +7.3 °C, raising peak cooling loads. Independent 2020–2022 station observations support the HDD projections (CDD projections were not independently validated). Because a single grid cell and station cannot resolve urban canyon or local climate zone contrasts, the conclusions apply to the campus vicinity. Overall, the study translates the climate signal into HVAC-sizing and retrofit-relevant metrics for a warming semi-arid capital.