Research Information System
Acta Geophysica, 2025 (SCI-Expanded)
This study investigates the projected impacts of climate change on extreme rainfall events across Türkiye, utilizing a 6-high-performer-member ensemble of CMIP6 global climate models under two different shared socioeconomic pathways: SSP2-4.5 (Middle of the Road) and SSP5-8.5 (Fossil-fueled Development—Taking the Highway). We quantified and compared projected changes in the 5-year, 50-year, and 100-year return period values for daily maximum precipitation and examined their spatial and temporal variations. Our findings revealed a consistent intensifying extreme rainfall and increase in the quantile values under both scenarios, with significantly larger increases projected under the high-emission pathway. Under SSP5-8.5, the mean 100-year return level in the far future (2071–2100) is projected to be 30% higher than the historical baseline (1961–2014), reaching a mean of up to 130 mm compared with the historical 100 mm. Under SSP2-4.5, the increase was moderate to 15%, reaching a mean of approximately 115 mm across Türkiye. This difference between the scenarios highlights the importance of emission reduction efforts in mitigating extreme rainfall risks. We also observed intensifying extreme rainfall, with projected increases becoming more pronounced in the future. The percentage increase in return levels is generally larger for shorter return periods (5-year) than for longer ones, suggesting a greater relative increase in the frequency of more common, less extreme events. Additionally, coastal regions exhibited higher positive anomalies than inland areas, indicating greater vulnerability to intensified extreme rainfall. These findings highlight the urgent need for proactive and regionally specific adaptation measures to enhance infrastructure resilience, improve disaster preparedness, and ensure management of water resources critical for agriculture and urban areas in Türkiye.