Outcome predictors for recovery of rotator cuff tendinopathy: An international prospective cohort study

Sports Kongres 2022, Kobenhavn, Danimarka, 03 Şubat 2022, cilt.8, ss.9, (Özet Bildiri)

Introduction There is inadequate data about outcome predictors

for rotator cuff (RC) tendinopathy recovery. This international

prospective cohort study aimed to determine outcome

predictors of RC tendinopathy recovery and build an explanatory

model.

Materials and Methods After completing the baseline survey,

which included over 40 potentially plausible bio-psycho-social

and demographic variables, recovery was assessed using the

Global Rating of Change scale at monthly follow-ups for one

year. Univariate cox proportional-hazards regression was used

to analyse individual predictive associations, and multivariate

cox regression was used for model building. Bootstrapping

was used for internal validity.

Results 73 people with RC tendinopathy (43.9±14.0 years; 45

females; Shoulder Pain and Disability Index = 37.7±24.4)

provided 15,284 days total analysis time at risk (208±129

days). Recovery rate was 47%, occurring around the 7th

month. According to the final model, higher health status

(HR = 1.03) and being moderately active (HR = 2.23) were

associated with RC tendinopathy recovery. The internal validity

showed that there was minimal overestimation in the predicted

outcome (average optimism=0.01). The model partially

predicted RC tendinopathy recovery with almost acceptable

performance (optimism-corrected Harrell’s C discrimination =

0.66 and Calibration Slope = 0.99).

Conclusion Self-reported online surveys may be useful to

understand RC tendinopathy prognosis. The combination of

self-reported factors, including activity level and health status,

partially predicted RC tendinopathy recovery. Therefore, these

modifiable self-reported variables could help guide clinical

decision making.