Research Information System
SCIENTOMETRICS, vol.0, no.0, pp.1-18, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, SSCI, Scopus)
The academic publishing market is evolving from a model driven by “Big Deals” to a more complex negotiation era centered on “Transformative Agreements” (TAs). Occurring within an oligopolistic market structure, this transition process provides a strong field of application for game theory to analyze the strategic decisions and reciprocal moves of the actors. This research investigates this process through game theory and inflation-adjusted data analysis. To this end, two major global datasets related to subscription and Article Processing Charges (APCs) have been converted to constant 2024 base year dollar values using the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). The analysis reveals that the market exhibits a distinct oligopolistic structure in both the “Read” and “Publish” domains, and that the real increases in academic publishing costs systematically outpace general economic inflation (an annual average of 2.8% vs. 4.2% +). Considering these findings, it is concluded that TAs, rather than offering a solution to the ongoing crisis, function as a strategic “transaction trap” that perpetuates the oligopolistic structure. As an ultimate solution to this structural problem, the study recommends the strategic redirection of resources from the commercial market toward community-based alternatives such as Diamond Open Access.